Is Shiba Inu overheating after SHIB price gains 75% in two weeks?


Shiba Inu (SHIB) looks poised to undergo sharp price corrections after rallying nearly 75% in almost two weeks.

SHIB’s price rallied to mid-January highs 

On Monday, the memecoin climbed to $0.00002961, its best level since Jan. 18, amid renewed buying interests across the cryptocurrency market. Before the retracement, SHIB’s price had crashed by almost 80% from its record high of $0.00008870.

Nonetheless, the wild price recovery also came closer to triggering two classic sell signals. First, SHIB’s daily relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator that fluctuates in the range between 0 and 100 to signal whether an asset is overbought (RSI>70) or oversold (RSI

Last, SHIB’s daily relative volatility index (RVI), which measures the standard deviation of low and high prices, dropped below 50, a sell signal. In a “perfect” scenario, traders close their long positions after the RVI drops below 40. At the time of writing, it came out to be near 48.

SHIB/USD daily price chart featuring RSI and RVI signals. Source: TradingView

Additional bearish signals

More cues for a possible SHIB price correction came from three other technical indicators. First, the Shiba Inu token’s current upside momentum showed signs of weakening near its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below) at around $0.00002761.

Second, SHIB’s ongoing uptrend accompanied lower volumes — i.e., they came out to be nowhere closer to the volumes witnessed during the token’s October 2021 price rally. That showed scant liquidity in the Shiba Inu market, making it harder for traders to execute buy and sell orders at desired levels.

As a result, a lower liquid market tends to witness wilder price swings in either direction.

SHIB/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Lastly, SHIB’s price neared a key pullback level of $0.00003358 that coincided with the 0.618 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $0.00000507 swing low to the $0.00007971 swing high. In conjugation with alarmin RSI and RVI readings, the $0.00003358 level posed as an ideal derisk zone for traders looking to secure interim profits.

Short the SHIB rally?

Norok, an independent market analyst, wrote that the latest SHIB price rally has brought out “excellent short opportunities.” He cited a fractal from November 2021 that showed SHIB undergoing a fake recovery rally of nearly 42% in two days but followed it with a 70% downside move later.

SHIB/USD daily price chart. Source: Norok, TradingView

“Each rally, far from being the fresh breath of hopium owners desire, has provided excellent short opportunities for months,” Norok explained, adding:

“This one is a clear pullback to test and hold Resistance and a good opportunity to add to the short where profit was taken at the start of January.”

The statements appeared as bearish positions lost millions of dollars during the recent SHIB price recovery. For instance, data from Coinglass showed over $10 billion worth of liquidations for traders of Shiba Inu-backed investment products, around 75% of which were short entries.

Nonetheless, Binance’s 1,000-SHIB futures product, which holds 1,000 Shiba Inu tokens per contract, looked slightly skewed toward bears, with its long/short ratio coming out to be 0.93 on a 24-hour adjusted timeframe.

In detail, the long/short ratio represents the amount of net long positions opened against the net short positions opened. A reading above 1 indicates that most open market positions are skewed long. Conversely, a reading below 1 indicates that the market bias is currently skewed toward shorts.

1,000-SHIB long/short ratio. Source: Coinglass

Meanwhile, the long/short ratio of SHIB futures on FTX was also near 0.97, suggesting the market’s bearish outlook on a 24-hour adjusted timeframe.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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